Why Australians won't be getting a pay rise until 2024

Australians are set to miss out on a decent pay rise until 2024 despite the Covid recovery unless they take up a trade.

Job vacancies are at the highest level in 12 years and skills shortages saw unemployment in March drop to 5.6 per cent.  

Westpac chief economist Bill Evans predicted Australia’s jobless rate would fall to 5 per cent by the end of 2021 – a level lower than before the Covid pandemic.

Nonetheless, workers will have to wait another three years to get a decent pay rise.

‘We do not expect to see marked upward pressures on wages growth before the second half of 2024,’ he said.

Australians are set to miss out on a decent pay rise until 2024 despite the Covid recovery.

Mr Evans predicted a continuation of Australia’s border closure next year would see wages rise, but not by enough for most workers to enjoy a meaningful pay increase as tourists and international students were shut out.

‘There may well be “pockets” of wage pressure in 2022 as closed borders squeeze labour supply in some sectors,’ he said. 

Australian wages last year rose by just 1.4 per cent and pay rise levels have been stuck below the 3 per cent mark since early 2013.

Some industries, however, are crying out for more staff with the federal government’s National Skills Commission revealing the advertised internet jobs tally of 238,700 in March was the highest since October 2008.

The volatile building sector, however, has almost tripled its demand for staff during the past year and this is set to continue with the federal government’s HomeBuilder scheme extended until April 2023. This will give owner-occupiers $15,000 subsidies if they spend at least $150,000 on a home renovation for a house. Pictured is a Melbourne house

Across all industries, the number of vacant positions surged by 96.4 per cent, a doubling of available jobs since the national Covid shutdowns of March 2020. 

The volatile building sector, however, has almost tripled its demand for staff during the past year and this is set to continue with the federal government’s HomeBuilder scheme now extended until April 2023.

This will give owner-occupiers $15,000 subsidies if they spend at least $150,000 on a home renovation for a house.

Demand for labourers by 139.8 per cent while the number of jobs for building site tradies climbed by 181 per cent. 

Advertised positions for work requiring a Certificate III qualification doubled at a rate higher than the national average. In some cases, the number of advertised almost quadrupled for those with a TAFE qualification with vacant positions for hairdressers (Melbourne hair stylist Sara Jade pictured) surging by 237.9 per cent

Construction and mining labour jobs had a 154.4 per cent increase.

Advertised positions for work requiring a Certificate III qualification doubled at a rate higher than the national average.

Unlike getting a university degree, which takes three years, a Certification III qualification can be obtained within a year. 

In some cases, the number of advertised almost quadrupled for those with a TAFE qualification with vacant positions for hairdressers surging by 237.9 per cent. 

The hospitality sector, the worst affected by the Covid shutdowns, is recruiting again with available jobs increasing by 321.6 per cent.