A U.S. diplomat in Europe says Russia’s troop buildup around Ukraine has ballooned to up to 190,000 – up from just 100,000 just a few weeks ago.
U.S. ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe Michael Carpenter made the statement Friday, following early statements by security officials that Russia might not yet have the force needed for a full-scale invasion.
‘We assess that Russia probably has massed between 169,000-190,000 personnel in and near Ukraine as compared with about 100,000 on January 30,’ Carpenter told a meeting of the group.
Russia did not attend.
‘This is the most significant military mobilization in Europe since the Second World War,’ he said.
Pictured in this video screen grab is a troop train carrying military hardware of Russian Army Western Military District tank army units from recent routine drills to a permanent deployment site in the Nizhny Novgorod Region. A top U.S. diplomat said Russia has massed up to 190,000 personnel near the Ukrainian border
Carpenter listed the various forces that he was including in the estimate.
‘This estimate includes military troops along the border, in Belarus, and in occupied Crimea; Russian National Guard and other internal security units deployed to these areas; and Russian-led forces in eastern Ukraine. While Russia has sought to downplay or deceive the world about their ground and air preparations, the Russian military has publicized its large-scale naval exercises in the Black Sea, Baltic Sea and the Arctic,’ he said.
‘Russia has publicly said the Black Sea exercise alone involves more than 30 ships, and we assess that amphibious landing ships from the Northern and Baltic Fleets were sent to the Black Sea to augment forces there.
Russia has been conducting air patrols and doing military exercises in Belarus
A handout still image taken from handout video made available by the Russian Defence Ministry press service shows Russian cruiser Moskva of the Black Sea Fleet conducting an artillery battle and destroying a mock enemy submarine in Black Sea near Sevastopol, Crimea, 18 February 2022
”We remain of course supportive of diplomacy as it relates to the dialogue and discussions we’ve had with Russia, but we are also committed to taking corrective actions to ensure there will be severe consequences in terms of the sanctions we have discussed,’ said VP Kamala Harris. She met with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in Munich
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin meets with Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak, at Palace on the Isle in Royal Lazienki Park in Warsaw, Poland, on 18 February 2022. Austin also phoned his Russian counterpart
Russia has denied it is planning an invasion
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks at a UN Security Council meeting on Ukraine, on February 17, 2022, in New York. He warned a Russian ‘false flag’ operation could precede an invasion
Harris arrived in Munich Thursday to attend the annual security conference there
He pointed out Russia’s absence, and said it ‘refuses to shed further light on its unprecedented military buildup. Instead, it has characterized the request for clarification of its military operations under the Vienna Document, which I would remind everyone is a mechanism that Moscow voluntarily signed up to, as a ‘provocation.’
HIs remarks came a day after Secretary of State Antony Blinken delivered his own dire warnings of a potential Russian invasion at a meeting of the UN Security Council. He warned that a potential Russia ‘false flag’ operation or chemical attack could trigger an invasion.
Russia has denied any intent of an invasion even as it orchestrated a massive buildup over a period of months.
Amid the U.S. push for diplomacy, Vice President Kamala Harris began a round of meetings at the annual security conference in Munich.
‘We assess that Russia probably has massed between 169,000-190,000 personnel in and near Ukraine as compared with about 100,000 on January 30,’ said Michael Carpenter, U.S. ambassador to the OSCE
‘We remain of course supportive of diplomacy as it relates to the dialogue and discussions we’ve had with Russia, but we are also committed to taking corrective actions to ensure there will be severe consequences in terms of the sanctions we have discussed, and we know the alliance is strong in that regard,’ Harris said as she met with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
‘Right now we are obviously dealing with being concerned about what’s happening in Ukraine. As a member of NATO we feel very strongly about and will always be committed to the principle of territorial integrity and sovereignty,’ she said.
President Biden plans to speak by phone with Transatlantic leaders Friday ‘about Russia’s buildup of military troops on the border of Ukraine and our continued efforts to pursue deterrence and diplomacy,’ according to the White House.
Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin spoke Friday with Russian Minister of Defense Sergey Shoygu, the Pentagon said. ‘Secretary Austin called for deescalation, the return of Russian forces surrounding Ukraine to their home bases, and a diplomatic resolution,’ according to DOD.
Austin also met with his Polish counterpart.
‘Although Russia has announced it is moving its forces back to garrison, we have yet to see that. In fact, we see more forces moving into that region, that border region,’ he said, echoing Blinken’s comments Thursday. ‘We also see them going through, continuing to prepare, by doing things you’d expect elements — military elements — to do as they were preparing to launch an attack.’
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said Friday that tensions were reaching Cold War levels, leading to high stakes potential risks.
‘I am often asked whether we are in a new Cold War,’ he said at the Munich conference. ‘My answer is that the threat to global security now is more complex and probably higher than at that time.’
Russia will hold a major nuclear drill tomorrow involving live-fire exercises of ballistic and cruise missiles including around Crimea and the Black Sea, the Kremlin announced – with President Vladimir Putin overseeing it himself.
The drill will involve Russia’s aerospace forces, its strategic missile command, Northern and Black Sea fleets and the Southern Military District – which covers Crimea and part of the border close to rebel-held areas in Ukraine.
It is designed to test the ‘readiness’ of commanders and troops as well as ‘the reliability of weapons of strategic nuclear and non-nuclear forces’ and will involve the launch of ‘ballistic and cruise missiles’, Moscow’s defense ministry said today.
