Boris Johnson and half of his Cabinet could lose their seats if a general election were held now, a poll has revealed.
The Conservatives are facing ‘electoral wipeout’ following the Partygate scandal, a pollster warned, as data shows they are on track to lose a staggering 164 MPs, leaving them with just 201 – only three more than when Tony Blair thumped Michael Howard in 2005.
The JL Partners poll of 4,500 people says Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour would pick up 352 seats, an increase of 150, giving him an overall majority of 14, reports the Times.
Meanwhile, the Tories would be wiped out of Scotland and Wales, losing all six and 14 seats they hold in each nation respectively.
But the fatal blow would come from the 65 so-called ‘red wall’ consituencies in the north – who handed Boris a landslide in 2019, largely thanks to his promise to ‘get Brexit done’.
According to the latest poll, all but 10 of these – 55 – would revert back to Labour if an election were held today – including Blyth Valley, Redcar, Sedgefield, North West Durham, Bassetlaw, Great Grimsby and Ashfield.
Boris Johnson (pictured) who only holds his Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat by just over 5,000 votes – the lowest for a sitting prime minister since 1924 – would be voted out if an election were held now, poll predicts
London would also purge 12 Tory MPs, the poll forecasts – more than half of the 21 currently elected in the capital.
These include the prime minister himself, who only holds his Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat by just over 5,000 votes, the lowest majority for a sitting prime minister since 1924.
Other big name losses could include Defence Secretary Ben Wallace and nine other cabinet members; George Eustice, Grant Shapps, Alok Sharma, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, Simon Hart, Alister Jack and Simon Clarke.
Dominic Raab would hold on by the skin of his teeth in Esher and Walton, however the poll predicts a small amount of tactical voting from the Lib Dems could also see him ousted.
Some 70 of the 107 Tory MPs who were elected for the first time in 2019 could also lose their seats.
The survey, conducted by Theresa May’s former pollster James Johnson, puts Labour on 45 per cent of the vote, compared to the Conservatives’ 32 per cent.
Meanwhile the Liberal Democrats would pick up five more seats compared to the last election, the poll predicts, giving them a total of 16.
The survey used the MRP model projection, which maps polling results onto every seat in the country.
It predicts more than half (28) of the 50 Conservative MPs who are parliamentary private secretaries, would also lose their seats.
The JL Partners poll of 4,500 people says Sir Keir Starmer’s (pictured) Labour would pick up 352 seats, an increase of 150, giving him an overall majority of 14
The figures will be sobering reading for MPs as they await the outcome of the Partygate probe currently being conducted by the Metropolitan Police.
The force is investigating several lockdown-busting parties in Downing Street, which allegedly took place while the country was living under tough Covid restrictions.
When it came to personality match ups, as part of the same poll, Mr Johnson scored an approval rating of -39, compared to Sir Keir’s -7.
In fact on all but three attributes, Sir Keir came out on top, including on ‘tells the truth’, ‘stands up for people like me’, ‘good on detail’, ‘inspiring’, ‘shares my values’, ‘competent’, ‘stands up for the north’, ‘someone who brings people together’, ‘says what he means’, ‘fair’, ‘caring’, ‘best to rebuild the country’, ‘has a clear vision for Britain’, ‘best to handle the coronavirus pandemic’, ‘strong’ and ‘determined’.
The PM only beat Sir Keir on ‘patriotic’, ‘stands up for the south’, and ‘charismatic’.
The proportion of people who believe the embattled premier is ‘strong’ or ‘has a clear vision for Britain’ has more than halved in the past two years, the poll suggests, while a mere nine per cent believes he tells the truth.
The survey also put him up against his would-be rivals for the leadership – and they fared much better, with Chancellor Rishi Sunak scoring a net rating of zero, while foreign secretary Liz Truss is on -17.
Both are viewed more positively than the PM in every seat in Britain.
Other big name losses could include Defence Secretary Ben Wallace (pictured) and nine other cabinet members; George Eustice, Grant Shapps, Alok Sharma, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, Simon Hart, Alister Jack and Simon Clarke.
Pollster James Johnson said: ‘On these numbers, the Conservatives face electoral wipeout.
‘Though Keir Starmer’s ratings remain negative, the sharp difference in comparison to Boris Johnson’s ratings mean Labour are benefitting by default.
‘Though it is possible to see the gap narrowing in an actual election contest, and significant brand problems for Labour persevere, it is becoming less and less likely to see a situation in which the Conservatives win a majority under Boris Johnson.
‘”Partygate” has been damaging and has all the signs of being long-lasting.
‘The prime minister no longer leads on the “must-have” attributes that won him the 2019 election: strength, the ability to get things done, and a sense he was an authentic politician.’
