Experts say China will help Russia weather storm of Ukraine sanctions

China could buy more Russian energy and lend Moscow cash to help Vladimir Putin weather the storm of sanctions imposed by the West over the Ukraine crisis, experts have predicted. 

Mr Putin’s decision to launch military action against Ukraine will result in the US, UK and other NATO allies rolling out more punitive measures against Russia. 

Experts believe China is likely to help Russia ‘behind the scenes’, with the level of support from Beijing potentially becoming an ‘influential factor in shaping an evolving crisis’. 

However, China will need to ‘walk a fine line’ as it tries to avoid damaging its links to the West, with protecting trade likely to be a key priority.  

China could buy more Russian energy and lend Moscow cash to help Vladimir Putin weather the storm of sanctions imposed by the West over the Ukraine crisis, experts have predicted

Mr Putin and President Xi Jinping issued a statement at the start of February which declared the ‘friendship between the two States has no limits’

China and Russia have moved closer in recent years as both have faced rising tensions with the West. 

Mr Putin visited Beijing at the beginning of February for the start of the Winter Olympics. 

He and President Xi Jinping issued a statement at the time which declared the ‘friendship between the two States has no limits’. 

China backed Russia in opposing NATO expansion as the two nations accused the US, UK and others of adopting ‘ideologized Cold War approaches’ to international relations.   

The statement committed the pair to strengthening foreign policy coordination and to defend common interests. 

However, China has not publicly backed Russia over the Ukraine crisis, instead urging ‘all parties’ to ‘exercise restraint’. 

Beijing has said the situation in Ukraine is the ‘result of many complex factors’ and ‘China always makes its own position, according to the merits of the matter itself’.  

Following the invasion of Ukraine, China is unlikely to publicly support Mr Putin’s actions but it is also unlikely to criticise the Russian President. 

Experts believe China will help Russia as sanctions imposed by the West begin to bite.

That could mean Chinese banks lending money to Moscow and Beijing buying more Russian oil and gas. 

Tom Rafferty, a Beijing-based analyst with the Economist Intelligence Unit, told the Financial Times: ‘The level of Chinese support for Russian actions could be an influential factor in shaping an evolving crisis.’

Jakub Jakobowski, a senior fellow with the China programme at the Eastern Studies Centre in Warsaw, told the newspaper: ‘Unless the West puts a really tangible cost on China, China will still help Russia behind the scenes.’

However, many believe China will want to avoid damaging its economic interests which are linked to the West and that is likely to temper its support for Moscow.

Noah Barkin, an expert on Europe-China relations at US research firm Rhodium Group, told Bloomberg that Beijing ‘will have to walk a fine line in this crisis’. 

He said: ‘It will want to avoid openly criticising Russia’s actions in Ukraine, while affirming its support for the principles of territorial integrity and non-interference. The hotter the conflict in Ukraine gets, the more difficult it will be for Beijing to walk this line.’ 

China backed Russia in opposing NATO expansion as the two nations accused the US, UK and others of adopting ‘ideologized Cold War approaches’ to international relations

Meanwhile, Professor Steve Tsang, director at the School of Oriental and African Studies (Soas) China Institute, told the i newspaper that China is ‘not keen to see a war over Ukraine, as it has strong economic and other ties with Ukraine’. 

Rising tensions with the West are expected to quicken Russia’s ongoing pivot to the East when it comes to selling its oil and gas.  

Russian energy firms agreed new long-term supply deals with China at the start of February.

The expectation is that China’s demand for Russian energy will now surge in the coming years while European demand is likely to fall.