EU could seek to sow division and 'break up UK' if Scotland rejoins, warns economist

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Professor David Blake, professor of finance at London’s City University, warned of possible dire consequences ahead for Scots and their fellow Britons if Nicola Sturgeon’s ambitious plan comes to fruition. Scotland’s First Minister continues to pursue a second independence referendum despite her nation’s deficit tripling to £40billion last year during the Covid crisis.

And she has vowed to tie Scotland to EU rules if voters accept her independence vision and vote to sever ties with Britain.

Prof Blake said if Ms Sturgeon came knocking on Brussels’ door asking to be readmitted the bloc’s bosses could seize it as a unique opportunity to create instability on the UK’s borders.

He said Brussels may welcome Scots back with open arms, but for sinister rather than honest reasons.

He suggested the Europeans could go as far as to station military personnel in Scotland in a bid to intimidate Britons living a few miles away in England and across the water in Northern Ireland.

Asked how he foresees the process of Scotland rejoining the 27-member bloc, Prof Blake told Express.co.uk: “It all depends on whether the EU sees Scotland as an opportunity to break up the UK.”

He pointed to the EU’s Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) which punishes member states for breaching fiscal rules and said Scotland is unlikely to meet membership requirements.

But he said the bloc could bend the rules in order to allow the country back if it saw it as an advantageous move.

He explained: “Under the criterion of the standard rules, the Maastricht rules of the budget deficit, the less than 3 percent of GDP and the national deficit being met with 60 percent of GDP, then Scotland is never going to satisfy the conditions of entry.

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He said the EU are “not going to give up on Brexit” and will use it to create division in the UK.

He added: “They’re not going to accept it and they’re going to do everything they can to make Brexit a failure and for what’s left of the UK to go back in hand with a begging bowl asking to rejoin on whatever terms are set.

“So if they take the political view that they’d like to see Scotland in as having a stepping stone on the UK, having a presence on the UK with European army marching up and down the streets of Edinburgh, European air force in Lossiemouth, Faslane run by European Union submarines, then they’ll probably go for it.”

He said some MEP would be “totally welcoming” to Scotland if it tries to rejoin and the bloc “might even cancel debts, they might find a way around it” to get Scotland in the door.

And he said people living along the 96-mile Anglo-Scottish border could be in for a shock if they wake up to find themselves living along an EU-UK boundary.

The economist said: “It will be the same kind of border between Bulgaria and Turkey – barbed wire, armed police, customs checks, passports.”

He pointed to the issue of the Northern Ireland Protocol which has in recent weeks caused upset to post-Brexit trading.

He claimed the EU “does not want to be pragmatic” on the Protocol and “welcomes all this paperwork” which is making life difficult for communities.

The professor further argued eurocrats were using the legislation to “effectively sway Ulster to join the European Union”.



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