After months of escalating tensions and desperate diplomacy, Russia today launched all-out war on Ukraine.
President Vladimir Putin ignored international condemnation and sanctions to press ahead with the invasion with simultaneous attacks coming from the south, east and north, by both land and air.
The president gave an extraordinary address to the Russian nation this morning, in which he declared a ‘special military operation’ to ‘de-militarise’ and ‘de-Nazify’ Ukraine.
Putin also issued a chilling warning to any country thinking of coming to Ukraine’s aid, vowing ‘consequences greater than any you have faced in history’.
His words come amid anger at the Western response to Russian aggression, with a former general and German defence minister accusing the West of ignoring the looming threat of Putin over the past decade.
General Sir Richard Shirreff, ex-deputy supreme commander of Nato, said today: ‘You only have to listen to what Putin has been saying since 2014. This has been on the cards for some time – but the people who should have been listening have been ignoring it.’
Here, we look at the reasons behind Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, including some of his outlandish justifications, – and how it could affect you:
Putin has previously said that the fall of the USSR robbed Russia of its place among the world’s great powers and put it at the mercy of the West
The attack has come to Ukraine on all fronts, with bombs and missiles striking targets across the country, ground forces rolling in from Belarus, Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk, and paratroopers dropping on Kharkiv
Why did Vladimir Putin link Ukraine to neo-Nazis when declaring war?
In a bizarre and historically inaccurate address on Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed he was ‘ridding Ukraine’ of ‘neo-Nazis’ by invading.
He repeated the claims today as he announced Russian soldiers had entered Ukraine. He told the Ukrainian army: ‘Your ancestors fought the Nazis. Don’t obey the orders of the Nazi Junta in Kyiv. Lay down your arms and go home.’
The comments, which were widely panned, are an example of a common Russian media tactic, to portray a rival state as a nation that welcomes Nazism.
One example of this was posts from the Russian Foreign Ministry on social media that said Ukraine and the US had voted against a UN resolution condemning the glorification of Nazism.
Though both countries did refuse to back the resolution, they later condemned Nazism and said the resolution was driven by Russian propaganda.
The US claimed the document was a ‘thinly veiled attempt to legitimise Russian disinformation campaigns.’
There have been concerns raised about neo-Nazis and the rise of the far-right in Ukraine, with Azov, a nationalist battalion, now a unit within the nation’s military.
The issue was raised again when a great-grandmother pictured wielding an AK-47 in preparation for an invasion was revealed to have been taught how to use the weapon by the group. The Azov battalion has been accused of neo-Nazism and attacking LBTQ and Roma communities.
However, the far-right remains a minority in the country, with far-right groups failing to hit the 5% minimum needed to gain entry into parliament in the 2019 elections.
The 79-year-old great-grandmother pictured wielding an AK-47 in preparation for an invasion from Russia was taught how to use the weapon by the far-right movement Azov — which has previously faced accusations that it is a neo-Nazi group. Circled: The group’s logo features a Wolfsangel, one of the original symbols used by the 2nd SS Panzer Division Das Reich in WWII
Servicemen of the Azov battalion attend an oath ceremony in Kyiv in 2014. its original commander Andriy Biletsky said Ukraine’s mission was to ‘lead the white races of the world in a final crusade … against Semite-led Untermenschen [subhumans]’
Putin seems to now be peddling a conspiracy that has spiked since last November, with pro-Kremlin social media accounts linking Ukraine to Nazism as tensions rose between the neighbours.
Keir Giles, an expert on the country, who wrote a Nato report on its information warfare, told the BBC that Russia is ‘swift to label its adversaries and victims in Europe as Nazis’.
‘We have seen this not only in Ukraine, but also in Russia’s vilification of the Baltic states,’ he said.
What are the historical and geographic reasons Russia is citing for its invasion of Ukraine?
Putin believes that controlling Ukraine would give Russia a buffer zone to protect it from invasion. In the past 500 years, Russia has been invaded several times from the west, with armies coming across a vast area of flat land called the European Plain. Poland invaded in 1605, the French came under Napoleon in 1812 and the Germans did so in both world wars.
The European Plain stretches to 2,000 miles near the Russian border and offers a straight route to Moscow. To combat these geographical constraints, Putin, like other Russian leaders before him, has attempted to set up buffer zones and areas of Russian influence around his nation through expansion.
Historically, nations like Kazakhstan, Poland and Ukraine have all been annexed by Russia for security reasons and Putin has claimed that the current invasion of Ukraine has similar motivations.
Is Putin trying to ‘recreate’ the Soviet Union?
At the end of the Second World War, Russia occupied vast swathes of Central and Eastern Europe. However, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the expansion of Nato since the war has led to security fears in Moscow.
Putin has previously said that the fall of the USSR robbed Russia of its place among the world’s great powers and put it at the mercy of the West. Restoring this power and rebuilding Russia on the world stage has been the main aim of his 22 years in power.
He has long been obsessed with returning Ukraine to Moscow’s fold, in the name of Russia’s greatness. For many Russians of his generation, who were raised on Soviet propaganda, the USSR disintegrating and its spheres of influences vanishing remains an open wound.
For Putin, a KGB officer based in East Germany at the time the Soviet Union was gradually collapsing – between 1989 and 1991 – this was a personal defeat.
Putin, a KGB officer based in East Germany at the time the Soviet Union was gradually collapsing – between 1989 and 1991, has always wished to restore his nation to its former glory
Putin has long been obsessed with returning Ukraine to Moscow’s fold, in the name of Russia’s greatness, and has repeatedly claimed Ukraine ‘isn’t a real country’
The Russian leader has said many times that he suffered the same misery as his compatriots when the Soviet empire crumbled, recently claiming he was forced to drive a taxi to make ends meet when he returned to his homeland.
Putin has claimed that the end of the Soviet Union was the ‘greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century’ – despite Russia living through two world wars.
He has called Nato’s expansion ‘menacing’ and claimed that the prospect of Ukraine joining the body is an existential threat to his country.
Since 1997, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Slovenia, Croatia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Albania and Bulgaria have all joined Nato. To Putin and his supporters, this is proof of the West inching closer to Russia.
However, General Sir Richard Shirreff, ex-deputy supreme commander of Nato, warned today that the invasion of Ukraine proves Putin is determined to restore the Soviet Union.
Sir Richard said that Putin will look to occupy Ukraine – and potentially look to other countries in the region.
He said: ‘The Russians don’t hang around. They’ll look to establish overwhelming force so we have to assume the worst. There will be multiple attacks from different axes. This is a full blown military offensive to occupy Ukraine.’
Why did Putin describe Ukraine as ‘not even a country’ – and why do Russians believe the nations should be one?
Russia’s origins date back to a collection of ninth century tribes known as Kievan Rus, which made its home in Kiev and other towns now in Ukraine. Because of this, many Russians see Ukraine as being an important part of their own nation.
Dr Björn Alexander Düben, Assistant Professor at the School of International and Public Affairs at the London School of Economics, explained: ‘Ukraine’s sentimental and spiritual appeal to many Russians derives from the fact that the Kievan Rus’ – a medieval state that came into existence in the 9th century and was centred around present-day Kiev – is regarded as a joint ancestral homeland that laid the foundations for both modern Russia and Ukraine.’
As far back as 2008, according to Russian and US media, Putin told his then US counterpart George W. Bush that ‘Ukraine is not even a country.’
During his end-of-year press conference in December, Putin again raised eyebrows by saying Ukraine was ‘created’ by Vladimir Lenin, the founder of the Soviet Union.
Months earlier, in a long article called ‘On the historical unity of Russians and Ukrainians,’ he said that Kyiv’s decisions are driven by a Western ‘anti-Russia’ plot.
Analyst Stanovaya said that Putin has always believed that the Ukrainian people are themselves pro-Russians that have been ‘the subject of manipulation’.
She said that in the Kremlin’s ‘understanding, war would not be an attack on Ukraine, but a liberation of the Ukrainian people from a foreign occupier.’
As a former Soviet republic, modern-day Ukraine has deep social and cultural ties with Russia. In cities like Odessa, Russian is the dominant language, while Russians are the majority ethnic group in nearly all of Ukraine’s major cities.
However, Kiev existed before Moscow and Ukrainian nationalism predates the Soviet Union by 100 years. In fact, some elements of Ukrainian history even go back to the Middle Ages.
Timothy Snyder, a history professor at Yale University, reacted to Putin’s bizarre claims on Monday. He said: ‘It’s very strange when you’re surrounded by the reality of Ukrainian history, to hear a distant tyrant declare that the thing doesn’t exist. Obviously he’s wrong.’
How did the current tensions between Russia and Ukraine and the West start?
The current difficulties date back to the overthrow in 2014 of the pro-Moscow Ukrainian government of Viktor Yanukovych, prompting fears in the Kremlin that the country was moving into the orbit of the West.
Putin now claims Ukraine is a puppet of the West and says that it was never a proper state.
In 2014, he responded by sending in troops to annex Crimea while Russian-backed separatist rebels seized territory in eastern Ukraine in bloody fighting with the Ukrainian military.
The history of Crimea, part of Ukraine that was annexed by Russia in 2014, has been marked by fighting and conquest.
From the 5th century BC and for almost 2,000 years Crimea was a Greek settlement. It later became part of the Roman Empire, the Byzantine Empire and the Empire of Trebizond.
It was acquired by the Kievan Rus, becoming part of what is modern-day Ukraine in the medieval period. However, it was then conquered by the Golden Horde, the Khanata and the Ottoman Empire.
In 1774 the Ottomans were defeated by Russia and traded Crimea to Catherine the Great. Crimea was annexed into Russia in 1783.
Eventually, this led to the Crimean War, a conflict between 1853 and 1856 in which Russia fought an alliance of the UK, France, the Ottoman Empire and Sardinia.
Crimea was an independent Soviet state from 1921 to 1945, then a province of Russia from 1945 to 1954 and then a province of Ukraine – until it was annexed by Russia in 2014.
In January last year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged US President Joe Biden to let Ukraine join Nato.
An angered Russia responded by sending troops near the Ukrainian border for training exercises, with the size of the deployment steadily increasing. The US threatened sanctions if Russia invaded Ukraine.
Is Putin taking advantage of ‘weak’ Western leaders in Joe Biden and Boris Johnson?
Some, particularly Republicans in the US, believe that Putin is taking advantage of the ‘weakness’ of US President Joe Biden by launching his invasion.
Biden was slammed on January 19 when he referred to Russian troops potentially entering Ukraine as a ‘minor incursion’ and has been criticised since for moving slowly on sanctions.
As Russia escalated troop presence on the border, former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley said the Biden administration had failed to deliver on a promise of swift and severe sanctions.
She said: ‘Ukraine is a test of western resolve. It’s not just about Putin. The Chinese communists and Iranian jihadists are watching too. It’s a major leadership moment for Biden. So far, he’s failing.’
Dr. Mark Shanahan, an associate professor at the Department of Politics and International Relations at Reading University, said: ‘The sense in Europe at the moment- much closer to the action – is that the president is still too indecisive.’
Former President Trump claimed that Putin never would have invaded Ukraine if he were still president, and said that Russia has become ‘very very rich’ under Biden.
‘If properly handled, there was absolutely no reason that the situation currently happening in Ukraine should have happened at all,’ Trump said in a statement Tuesday. ‘I know Vladimir Putin very well, and he would have never done during the Trump Administration what he is doing now, no way!’
Trump also hit out against Biden’s ‘weak sanctions’. The Biden administration has faced sharp criticism for so far only sanctioning five Russian figures in Putin’s inner circle and hitting only two Russian banks. Senator Ted Cruz describes the sanctions as ‘appeasement that only increases the chances of military conflict.’
As Russian forces invaded Ukraine today, Biden was again slammed for showing ‘weakness’ by failing to publicly address the situation.
Similar criticisms have been levelled at UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
US President Joe Biden (left) and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson (right) have both been accused of weakness when dealing with the Russian threat
He was accused of ‘encouraging’ Putin’s invasion of Ukraine today by imposing ‘pathetic sanctions’ that the Russian leader completely ignored.
The Prime Minister came under withering friendly fire this morning over ‘weak’ economic measures targeting cronies of the Kremlin autocrat before his tanks crossed the border.
Mr Johnson this week unveiled measures targeting just three people and five banks after Putin recognised two breakaway areas in Ukraine’s east – and is preparing to introduce more now that a full-scale incursion is underway.
Tory MP Tom Tugendhat, a former soldier and chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee. told the BBC today: ‘I’m afraid weak sanctions like the ones that were imposed on Monday just encourage others to believe we are weak because we’re clearly not willing to do anything serious.
‘So what that did, I’m afraid on Monday, was it didn’t deter, but encouraged, because it gave the suggestion or made clear that we weren’t wiling to do anything serious.
‘If we are going to do sanctions, as I say, we need to do them extremely hard and extremely early.’
He added: ‘This is a vile act of war and an aggression which really cannot be tolerated by any party.’
Tory MP Bob Seely, a member of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee (FAC), previously said Britain was ‘a decade behind the times’ on the threat posed by Russian financial influence.
The PM also came under fire after he was forced to cancel a phone call to discuss the Ukraine crisis with Putin at the start of the month because of Partygate.
The call between the Prime Minister and the Russian president was cancelled after Moscow reportedly rejected a request for a brief delay.
Did the West miss its chance to stop Russia and Putin more than 10 years ago?
There is a growing feeling among experts that the Ukraine invasion should have been foreseen and stopped earlier.
Former German Defence Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer said today: ‘I’m so angry at us for historically failing. After Georgia, Crimea and Donbass, we have not prepared anything that would have really deterred Putin.’
General Sir Richard Shirreff said that Putin ‘absolutely’ wants to restore the Soviet Union and warned that the Russian leader’s goal had been clear since 2014.
He said: ‘You only have to listen to what Putin has been saying since 2014. The most appropriate security settlement for Europe is a new Yalta. He sees Russia dominating eastern Europe as the Soviet Union did in communist time. This has been on the cards for some time – but the people who should have been listening have been ignoring it.
‘We should mobilise the forces, such as we’ve got, as I’m afraid the cupboard is pretty bare after a decade-plus of cuts. Our government must be examining carefully what needs to be done to reinforce the East and send the most powerful signal that Nato is ready and willing to defend its territory.’
The invasion of Ukraine is not the first time Russia has moved in on nearby states.
In 2008, Putin invaded Georgia during the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics. Around 40,000 soldiers and 1,200 armored vehicles entered the semi-autonomous region of South Ossetia before stopping about 35 miles short of Tbilisi, Georgia’s capital.
Russia justified the invasion by claiming that it was required to protect Osseitians from Georgian ‘genocide’. However, no evidence of genocide was found by impartial observers.
Former German Defence Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer was among the experts to hit out at the ‘failure’ to stop Putin and Russia before today’s invasion
Some have also claimed that Russia was emboldened during Donald Trump’s presidency and his public disapproval of Nato. Putin was further bolstered by the US failure in Afghanistan.
Peter Hahn, a professor of history at The Ohio State University, and an expert on U.S. diplomacy, told Newsweek: ‘The Trump Administration weakened the foundation of NATO. Biden’s withdrawal from Afghanistan did nothing to repair the breach.’
What has happened now?
Earlier this week, Putin decided to recognise the two Russian-backed regions in east Ukraine – Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic – as independent states.
He ordered troops into the two regions to ‘maintain peace’ – crossing the red line set by the West by deploying Russian forces on Ukrainian territory.
Then, in another escalation, the first explosions sounded in Ukraine’s cities before dawn on Thursday as Putin launched his long-anticipated military operation in Ukraine.
In a televised address as the attack began, Putin warned other countries that any attempt to interfere would ‘lead to consequences you have never seen in history’.
US President Joe Biden declared that the world will ‘hold Russia accountable’.
Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg condemned Russia’s action as a violation of international law and a threat to European security.
Ukraine’s foreign ministry said Russia’s intent was to destroy the state of Ukraine, a Westward-looking democracy intent on moving out of Moscow’s orbit.
By midday Thursday, the skies over Kiev swarmed with Russian attack helicopters which seized Gostomel air base – though Ukrainian forces launched a fight-back, with ground forces moving in to retake the air field as jets streaking over the city, followed by reports that up to four Russian choppers had been shot out of the air.
A huge explosion is seen at Vinnytsia military base, in central Ukraine, as the country comes under all-out attack by Russia
Meanwhile Russian tanks, driving out of Crimea, broke through Ukrainian lines near Kherson and were moving towards the Dnieper River where they linked up with more helicopters and seized power plants – with a Russian flag seen raised over Kakhovka Hydroelectric plant in the early afternoon.
Ukrainian forces appeared to be putting up a stiff resistance around Kharkiv, in the east, where multiple Russian tanks and armoured vehicles were pictured having been destroyed by Kiev’s forces – with bodies lying in the streets. Two Russian soldiers were also captured by Kiev’s forces in the area.
Border guard units said they were fighting for control of Sumy, also in the east, against Russian forces. Earlier in the day, they had reported coming under attack from Belarus as Russian and Belarusian tanks rolled across the border and opened fire.
It came after cruise missiles, guided bombs and GRAD rockets took out targets from east to west – aimed at airfields, military bases, ammo dumps, and command posts including in the capital. Six Russian jets were shot out of the sky over the eastern Donbass region, Ukraine claimed.
Estimates of dead and injured were almost non-existent as of early afternoon. One Ukrainian official said ‘hundreds’ had been killed in early fighting, while another put the death toll at 40 Ukrainians and 50 Russians. Ukrainian police said fighting is going on ‘in almost the entire country’ and could not give an estimate of the dead.
What did Putin say after announcing’s today’s invasion?
Putin said the military operation was needed to protect civilians in eastern Ukraine – a claim the US had predicted he would falsely make to justify an invasion.
The Russian leader also accused the US and its allies of ignoring Russia’s demands to block Ukraine from ever joining Nato and offer Moscow security guarantees.
Mr Putin said Russia does not intend to occupy Ukraine but will ‘demilitarise’ it. Soon after his address, explosions were heard in the cities of Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa. Russia said it was attacking military targets.
He told Ukrainian service members to ‘lay down their arms and go home,’ saying Russia could not exist with a ‘constant threat emanating from the territory of Ukraine’ and clashes between Russian and Ukrainian solders was ‘inevitable.’
Could Russian aggression drag the US, UK and the rest of world into a new land war in Europe?
Ukraine is not a member of Nato, so the alliance’s members – including the UK – will not play a direct role in fighting.
The UK has supplied anti-tank weapons to the Ukrainian army and other support is being considered.
But Russian aggression in eastern Europe is likely to increase anxiety among Nato’s members. This could lead to a further build-up of forces, potentially increasing tensions even further in the region.
General Sir Richard Shirreff, ex-deputy supreme commander of Nato, has said Britain’s first line of defence is now the border of former Soviet states who fear they could be next after the invasion of Ukraine.
He said: ‘There is a possibility that we as a nation will soon be at war with Russia. We in this country must recognise that our security starts not on the white cliffs of Dover – it starts in the forests of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.’
Sir Richard has said today’s invasion must change Boris Johnson’s ‘mindset’ – warning that he believes Putin is bent on restoring the USSR, which was split into 15 republics when it imploded in 1991.
And Putin delivered his own threat to the rest of the world as he announced the invasion today, saying: ‘To anyone who would consider interfering from the outside – if you do, you will face consequences greater than any you have faced in history.’
How will the invasion affect gas prices in the UK?
Britons already feeling the squeeze have been warned to expect huge price hikes on everyday items due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Shoppers who have been battered by eye-watering costs over the pandemic were told petrol, gas and wheat could be set to skyrocket as the war kicked off.
Analysts predict huge price hikes, with petrol set to rocket to more than 170p per litre, bills leaping by £700 and the price of bread to go up by 20p.
Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee Tom Tugendhat was quick to warn petrol will soar past £1.70 per litre this morning.
The Tory MP told the BBC’s Today programme: ‘The Russian people are still flying using planes with Rolls Royce and General Electric engines.
‘The money still needs to be transferred and the cost of transferring that money still has an effect on the Russian Exchequer.
‘The decisions made around Europe are absolutely going to shape the way Vladimir Putin sees this because the reality is that if we leave this to stand, if we let this pass, you can forget about petrol at £1.70 a litre, which is where it’s heading now. It will be significantly higher.’
Meanwhile the RAC also warned the cost of petrol could rocket, with one analyst from the firm saying it could hit 155p due to the war.
The firm’s fuel spokesman Simon Williams said: ‘Both petrol and diesel reached new record levels yesterday. Unleaded is nearly 149.5p a litre and diesel almost 153p.
A war could lead to significant disruption to ship movements around the Black Sea, which could fuel higher food inflation
‘Russia’s actions will now push petrol pump prices up to £1.50 very soon. The question then becomes where will this stop and how much can drivers take just as many are using their cars more and returning to workplaces.’
He continued: ‘If the oil price was to increase to $110 there’s a very real danger the average price of petrol would hit £1.55 a litre.
‘This would cause untold financial difficulties for many people who depend on their cars for getting to work and running their lives as it would sky rocket the cost of a full tank to £85.
‘At $120 a barrel – without any change to the exchange rate which is currently at $1.35 – we would be looking £1.60 a litre and £88 for a full tank.’
World oil prices on Thursday topped $100 for the first time in more than seven years due to supply fears after major producer Russia attacked Ukraine.
European benchmark Brent North Sea crude surged more than eight percent to $105.79 per barrel – the highest level since 2014.
US contract West Texas Intermediate reached $100.54 per barrel, also a peak last seen more than seven years ago. That capped a meteoric rise over almost two years since crude fell into negative territory for the first time.
In early 2020, oil briefly turned negative following the onset of the coronavirus pandemic that shut offices and factories – and grounded planes worldwide.
The market tumbled also on scarce storage facilities and a Saudi-Russia price war. WTI slumped to minus $40.32, meaning that producers paid buyers to take the oil off their hands.
Brent tanked to a low $15.98. Oil prices since recovered, rocketing last year to around $70 per barrel as economies reopened from lockdowns, sparking a surge in demand for crude. The highs for Brent and WTI are above $147.
Financial experts have pointed out Europe’s dependency on Russia for natural gas, as shown in this Associated Press graphic
The price per therm in pence is shown for UK natural gas prices, which could be set to soar due to the situation in Ukraine
Sarah Coles, senior personal finance analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown, said: ‘Millions of people have fallen into the fuel poverty gap, and war between Ukraine and Russia could push even more of us over the edge.
‘Falling real wages and massive price increases means the fuel poverty gap has hit £779 million. It would now take a £258 cut in fuel bills for someone to escape fuel poverty.
‘And this is even before the full impact of April’s price hike has fed through into the calculations – let alone the risk of war pushing prices up significantly again in October.
‘The timing of the forecast means the government has only factored in half of the impact of April’s incredible 54% price rise.
‘It has also added in the burn-now-pay-later loan from the government and the council tax rebate – both of which offer a boost up front, but nothing in subsequent months.
‘There’s also the risk that we could see prices rise significantly again in October, when the cap is reviewed, if the Russia Ukraine war pushes wholesale gas prices sky high.
‘Despite all this, the number of people in fuel poverty is still falling. This owes a great deal to how it is measured, which means that by expanding the Warm Home Discount, it doesn’t matter if incomes fall and fuel bills rocket, the number officially in fuel poverty will drop.
‘It means that to understand the horrible pressure on low income households, it’s important to look beyond improving fuel poverty figures, and understand how life is actually getting harder.’
How will the invasion impact energy and food prices in the UK?
The war could also indirectly hamper the energy sector in Britain amid a knock on effect if gas is shut off from Europe.
The UK only gets five per cent of its gas from Russia but any move to cut off supply – possibly in response to Western sanctions – could hit prices because it is impacted by the global market.
Putin may ‘weaponise’ his gas supplies to hurt Europe which would cause the wholesale cost to skyrocket and see a surge in prices everywhere amid high demand.
The energy regulator Ofgem warned any rise could lead to a further £700 hike in the price cap in October, on top of the £700 rise coming into effect in April.
But Britain should be safe from the supply of gas being shut off, but the EU would be hammered because it gets around half its stock from there.
UK gas supply mainly comes from the North Sea – with the system being set up in the 1960s – but resources have shrunk since 2000.
Norway gives around a third through huge pipelines while the rest is sent from countries such as Qatar, the US and the Caribbean as liquefied natural gas.
There are also heightened fears for the cost of bread due to Ukraine being a massive exporter of wheat across the world.
The two countries account for around 29 per cent of global wheat exports, 19 per cent of world corn supplies and 80 per cent of world sunflower oil exports.
It left traders worried the military engagement will impact crop movement and trigger a mass scramble by importers to replace supplies from the Black Sea region.
Tory MP Mr Tugendhat said: ‘You can forget about bread at 80, 90, £1 a loaf… 10 per cent of the world’s wheat is grown in Ukraine and the idea that this year’s going to be a good crop, I’m afraid, is for the birds.’
He added: ‘This is absolutely one of those moments where we’re going to see the cost-of-living crisis driven by war.’
Gordon Polson, Chief Executive of the Federation of Bakers, told MailOnline: ‘Currently around 60-70 per cent of wheat used in the UK is grown in this country.
‘But given how big a player Ukraine is globally, there could be an impact on wheat prices worldwide. At this time however, it is impossible to predict if, or how, UK bread prices will be impacted.’
Around 70 per cent of Russia wheat exports went to buyers in the Middle East and Africa in 2021, according to Refinitiv shipping data.
Traders said the tensions earlier this week had already caused some buyers to divert vessels to other suppliers over concerns that any outbreak of war would lead to lengthy loading delays.
A lack of supplies from the Black Sea region could lift demand for the bread-making ingredient from the US and Canada.
Ukrainian firefighters extinguish the remains of an Air Force transport plane shot down somewhere over the country today
World food prices already hover near 10-year highs, led by strong demand for wheat and dairy products, the U.N. food agency said late last year.
Susannah Streeter from financial services company Hargreaves Lansdown said: ‘Russia and Ukraine make up 29 per cent of wheat exports, 19 per cent of exported corn and 80 per cent of sunflower oil exports with Turkey and Egypt the largest importers from the region.
‘Although the UK isn’t among the main markets for these exports, our food prices are still likely to go up because fewer supplies from the region would hit global food prices, which will impact the cost of food supplied to the UK too.
‘Already one of the most active contracts for wheat traded in Chicago is up 5.6 per cent today at its highest level since mid-2012.
‘Food producers do try and absorb rapid wholesale increases, but many have already warned that shelf prices will have to rise and that was before the full scale invasion of Ukraine.
‘Commodity traders are keeping a close watch on what’s happening at ports in the Black Sea, where grain is shipped.
‘For the moment Russia has kept its key ports open for navigation, but ships in the smaller Azov sea have already been stopped, where ports of smaller capacity operate.
‘The worry is that restrictions could soon be imposed on Black Sea ports too which is likely to send grain prices even higher than the rises we have seen today in international markets.’
Will the UK be hit by Russian hackers?
Britain may not yet be at war with Russia but Putin’s invasion of Ukraine could spark an immediate cyber-conflict that could knock out UK TV, broadband and phone networks as well as systems used by banks and the NHS, experts warned today.
GCHQ’s National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) urged UK organisations to ‘bolster their online defences’ and warned that there has been an ‘historical pattern of cyber attacks on Ukraine with international consequences’.
GCHQ’s National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) urged UK organisations to ‘bolster their online defences’ in a statement today
Ukrainian banking and government websites were last week briefly knocked offline by a spate of distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks which the US and Britain said were carried out by Russian military hackers – something the Russians denied. This will prompt concerns that the same sort of attack could now be attempted in the UK.
DDoS attacks try to crash a website by bombarding it with superfluous requests at the same time – and this surge of simple requests overloads the servers, causing them to shut down. In order to leverage the number of requests necessary, hackers will often resort to botnets – networks of computers brought under their control with malware.
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace also said the UK will launch retaliatory cyber attacks on Russia if it targets Britain’s computer networks, and that ‘offensive cyber capability’ was being developed from a base in North West England.
It comes after Home Secretary Priti Patel warned over the weekend that the UK Government expects to see ‘cyber attacks aimed at the West’, while NCSC chief executive Lindy Cameron told of a ‘heightened cyber threat’.
And in recent weeks the Financial Conduct Authority watchdog has written to the chief executives of UK banks warning them to brace for Russian-sponsored cyber attacks and to ensure their security systems are updated.