Sturgeon slammed by Cole-Hamilton on independence referendum
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon wants a second independence referendum to be put before Scots before the end of 2023, and has also expressed wishes for the country to once more rejoin the European Union. During the Brexit referendum in June 2016, Scotland voted against the UK leaving the EU by a huge margin of 62 percent to 38 percent. The SNP has used this to push the case for Scottish independence, arguing that Britain has been dragged out of the EU “against the will” of the Scottish people.
In a further development, the SNP and Scottish Greens revealed they are drawing up a joint Government prospectus on independence that will be put to Scots next year.
But while Brexit has seen the UK pay the EU up to £40billion over several years as part of an agreed divorce deal, Scotland could be hammered with a much higher bill from independence, a leading political expert has warned.
The most recent published figures show UK general Government gross debt was £2.2trillion at the end of the financial year ending March 2021, equivalent to 103.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).
This was driven in part by the tens of billions of pounds spent on propping up the UK during the Covid pandemic – a large chunk of which went to Scotland.
Nicola Srturgeon has been warned Scotland could be hit with a massive bill after independence (Image: GETTY)
Nicola Sturgeon wants to hold an independence referendum before the end of 2023 (Image: GETTY)
Alistair Jones, associate politics professor at De Montfort University in Leicester warned: “If there is a successful move to Scottish independence, it is most likely that Scotland will have to take on part of the UK’s burden of debt.
“What is not clear, is how much that would be, or how it could be done.
“There could be an annual payment to help in the servicing of the UK national debt and for that to be in place for an extended number of years.
“This could be something like £10billion per year, but that will depend upon the agreed legacy sum that the Scots would owe, and the length of time of repayment.
The SNP have been pressing the case for Scottish independence for the past few years (Image: GETTY)
“Alternatively, a proportion of the UK national debt could be transferred to Scotland upon gaining independence.
“An example is the splitting of Czechoslovakia, where the debt, liabilities and assets were split 2:1 between the Czech Republic and Slovakia, based around population size.
“If that model was followed, the split would be 11:1 between Scotland and the rest of the UK.
“If UK national debt is around £2trillion, the 11:1 ratio will see the Scots take on around £181 billion.”
Boris Johnson has rejected all demands from the SNP for a second independence referendum (Image: GETTY)
The SNP’s Westminster leader Ian Blackford has also pushed the case for Scottish independence (Image: GETTY)
He added: “There will also be assets to take into consideration (e.g. oil and gas) and these will have to be factored in, along with any other liabilities (total UK liabilities, pre-covid, were around £4.5 trillion).
“Yet there could be a decision to split the debt by proportion of GDP or proportion of government spending.”
But Professor Jones urged caution over the matter of financial impacts from Scottish independence, warning: All of this, however, is conjecture.
“Neither side will want to explore this issue until an independence vote has been successful.
“Talk about such things, in advance, could undermine the Union arguments by merely acknowledging.”
Independence could prove to be extremely costly for Scotland (Image: EXPRESS)
The SNP has not responded to a request for comment from Express.co.uk.
But Andrew Wilson, the former SNP who chaired the sustainable growth commission reporting to Ms Sturgeon in May 2018, provided interesting insight into the financial liabilities from Scottish independence.
In an article for The Times in September 2020, he explained: The SNP would seek to secure a positive outcome that is fair to Scotland but accepts our responsibilities and obligations to the people of the rest of the UK.
“In July (2020), the Treasury published whole-of-government accounts for the year ending March 2019, with UK registered assets on the public balance sheet of just under £2.1trillion.
“The largest category was “property, plant and equipment”, at £1.3 trillion.
“Liabilities on the other hand stood at just over £4.5trillion, dominated by public sector pensions (£1.9trillion) and Government borrowing (£1.4 trillion). That latter number has increased significantly since.
He added: “So, there are about £2.5trillion more liabilities than assets on the balance sheet.
“The key negotiating point is not what Scotland can get from the assets of the UK, but rather what liabilities Scotland will agree to shoulder.”
