London mayoral election polls: Which London Mayor candidate is predicted to win this week?


The London mayoral election is scheduled to take place on Thursday, May 6. A massive and record-breaking 20 candidates are standing in the race hoping to win support from six million eligible London voters, who are entitled to cast their votes on election day.

The capital was due to elect a new mayor last year, but the election was postponed until this year due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.

The incumbent mayor is Labour candidate Sadiq Khan who is running for re-election.

And despite the huge number of people vying for the top job, Mr Khan says it is a two-person race of himself against the Conservative contender Shaun Bailey.

Recent poll data seems to support the Labour candidate’s assessment of the election being a two-person race, but who is out in front according to the latest polls?

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The latest Opinium London 2021 poll, which surveyed 1,005 London adults aged 18 or over, pitches Mr Khan as the winner of the first-round vote with 48 percent support.

This compares to 29 percent for the Tory contender Shaun Bailey.

When second preferences are taken into account, Mr Khan’s support rose to 63 percent and Mr Bailey’s support rose to 37 percent.

The Liberal Democrat Louisa Porrit and Green candidate Sian Berry remain in close contention with each other for third place with eight and seven percent respectively.

Reclaim party candidate Laurence Fox has three percent while Women’s Equality Party candidate Mandu Reid has one percent, with four percent selecting “another candidate”.

A YouGov poll of 1,192 adults in London was published on April 1 and found both Mr Bailey and Mr Khan had lost support compared to a poll conducted in mid-November.

Mr Khan had 51 percent support in November, compared to 47 percent in the most recent poll.

By comparison, the Tory mayoral candidate won 30 percent support in November which dropped by 26 percent in the most recent survey.

These lost votes were redistributed to Ms Porritt, Reclaim UK’s Laurence Fox and Brian Rose.

The results for the first round of voting intention of the recent YouGov/QMUL poll were as follows:

  • Shaun Bailey: 26 percent
  • Sadiq Khan: 47 percent
  • Luisa Porritt: Seven percent
  • Sian Berry: Nine percent
  • Mandu Reid: One percent
  • Peter Gammons: One percent
  • David Kurten: Zero percent
  • Laurence Fox: Four percent
  • Brian Rose: Three percent
  • Some other candidate: Two percent.

For the second round, the votes are as follows: 34 percent for Mr Bailey and 66 percent for the Labour incumbent.


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